Here's how Chad Kelly stacks up against previous Heisman Trophy winners - College BattleGround

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Let’s take a look at the stats from the last seven QBs to win the Heisman.

After rewriting the Ole Miss record books and posting the third most single-season passing yards in SEC history during his first year in Oxford, Chad Kelly is getting some deserved buzz as a legitimate 2016 Heisman contender. The latest numbers from Bovada have him at 12/1, tied for the fifth-best odds in the country.

Deshaun Watson (QB Clemson)	+350
Leonard Fournette (RB LSU)	+400
Christian McCaffery (RB Stanford)	+500
JT Barrett (QB Ohio State)	+1000
Chad Kelly (QB Ole Miss)	+1200
Dalvin Cook (RB Florida State)	+1200
Baker Mayfield (QB Oklahoma)	+1200
Nick Chubb (RB Georgia)	+1400
Josh Rosen (QB UCLA)	+1600
Royce Freeman (RB Oregon)	+2000
Samaje Perine (RB Oklahoma)	+2000
Calvin Ridely (WR Alabama)	+2500
Joshua Dobbs (QB Tennessee)	+2500
Brad Kaaya (QB Miami)	+3300
Patrick Mahomes (QB Texas Tech)	+3300

The departures of blindside protector Laremy Tunsil and top target Laquon Treadwell could certainly make things tougher for Kelly. At the same time, a loaded cast of returning skill players and another offseason for a noted tape junkie is more than enough reason to expect Kelly to improve during his senior season.

So how much does he need to improve to have a shot at the Heisman? To get a ballpark sense of what kind of numbers Kelly will need, I pulled stats on the last seven passers to win the award (QBs have won the Heisman in seven of the last nine years). This approach obviously ignores several key factors—namely team success and competition from other contenders—but the idea here is to simply provide statistical reference points.

	year	comp. %	pass yds	pass TDs	INT	total QBR	rush yds	rush TDs	total yds	total TDs
Marcus Mariota	2014	68.3	4,454	42	4	91.3	770	15	5,224	57
Jameis Winston	2013	66.3	4,057	40	10	90.2	219	4	4,276	44
Johnny Manziel	2012	68	3,706	26	9	91.3	1,410	21	5,116	47
Robert Griffin	2011	72.4	4,293	37	6	83.5	699	10	4,992	47
Cam Newton	2010	66.1	2,854	30	7	90	1,473	20	4,327	50
Sam Bradford	2008	67.9	4,720	50	8	91.9	47	5	4,767	55
Tim Tebow	2007	66.9	3,286	32	6	86.5	895	23	4,181	55

Now let’s average all of those numbers together to create a statistical profile for the archetypal Heisman winner. We can then compare that profile to Kelly’s 2015 season to see what kind of numerical improvements he needs to make in order to theoretically be in the conversation.

	year	comp. %	pass yds	pass TDs	INT	total QBR	rush yds	rush TDs	total yds	total TDs
AVERAGE		68.1	3,910	36.5	7.1	89.2*	808.6	14.5	4,719	51
Chad Kelly	2015	65.1	4,042	31	13	87.0	500	10	4,542	41

*I have no way of calculating ESPN’s Total QBR stat, so I just took the mean.

So what does Kelly need to do to fit the statistical profile of a Heisman winner?

1. Cut down on the interceptions.

Jameis Winston is the only winner on that list to throw double-digit picks, and he offset that by throwing 40 touchdowns. The good news for Kelly is that, through a combination of increased familiarity with the offense and enhanced freedom to use his legs to escape jams, he cut down on those mistakes down the stretch last season: after tossing 12 picks through his first nine games, he threw just one during the last four. Cut the turnovers and Swag’s Total QBR could rise above 90.0, a statistical trait shared by five of the seven QBs on our list.

2. Become more accurate.

None of the last seven winners completed less than 66 percent of their passes, and Chad’s 65.1 is three percentage points below the average. Specifically, he needs to increase his accuracy against top secondaries: last season, Swag failed to hit the 68.1 percent threshold in all six of the games he played against teams ranked in the top 35 of pass defense F&P+. His combined completion percentage during those games was 61 percent.

3. Score a few more TDs.

Kelly was 10 touchdowns off the average total and needed about five more through the air to reach the average passing mark. The numbers do suggest he could get by with a passing touchdown mark in the low 30s, but only if gets more production on the ground: the four winners who had fewer than 37 scores through the air also piled up at least 699 rushing yards.